Hear me out on this. I was thinking about the ultimate end-game of hyperbitcoinization, and I stumbled into a bizarre paradox. If the Lightning Network becomes as fast, cheap, and seamless as Bitcoin maxis hope it will, could it actually end up undermining the very security of Bitcoin itself? Think about the onboarding process. Right now, the goal is to get everyone onto Layer 2 because we all know the base layer can't scale to handle global, day-to-day commerce. But here is the catch: once a user is successfully onboarded into a Lightning channel, why would they ever leave? If people move to Layer 2 and are just exchanging off-chain IOUs indefinitely, it creates a fatal economic flaw for the base layer: The Fee Market Collapse: Bitcoin's long-term security budget relies entirely on transaction fees replacing the block subsidy. But if most daily transactions happen off-chain on Lightning, L1 transaction volume effectively dries up. Fewer L1 transactions means plummeting fee revenue for miners. If mining ceases to be profitable, the network's hashrate drops, making the entire foundational ledger vulnerable to 51% attacks. The ultimate irony is that the better Lightning gets, the less economic incentive anyone has to interact with the base layer that secures it. By solving the scalability problem, they might accidentally be engineering a slow-motion vampire attack on Bitcoin's foundational security. Change my mind. submitted by /u/Good-Book-6912 [link] [Kommentare]
While doing my weekly research on what happened over the last week and how the market is currently pricing stuff, one thing that caught my eye this was Bitcoin's skew. BTC is pricing roughly a ±3.9% move for the coming week, but that's not really the interesting part. What's interesting is that puts are still trading a lot richer than calls. Downside protection is carrying about a 12 vol point premium over comparable upside exposure. It is normal that puts are more expensive than calls, but Deribit's pricing is quite substantial compared to the last few weeks. That surprised me. Bitcoin is down close to 18% just in the last week alone and traders are still paying up significantly for protection. So either traders remain genuinely worried about another leg lower, or nobody is in a hurry to sell that downside insurance. I'm not saying Bitcoin has to go down from here. Plenty of markets bottom while put skew remains elevated. But, the fear is quite clear on the options chain. I just think it's interesting that even after a meaningful selloff, the options market still seems a lot more concerned about downside than upside. Anyone else watching the skew or willing to sell some puts here? https://preview.redd.it/kfkg3ta00q5h1.png?width=1160&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab5da85d980d0cc1d18bc105b5137ca2be9172fb submitted by /u/DueDilligenceTrader [link] [Kommentare]
I am trying to undersand the Zcash bug that was recently discovered. Does anyone know if there is certainty about whether it was exploited or not? Would there be any evidence of an exploit if someone had used it to mint a bunch of ZEC? https://x.com/CryptoTubeYT/status/2062502670909530409 submitted by /u/Good-Book-6912 [link] [Kommentare]
Edit: I should have started with- if you invest in crypto, haven’t sold yet, and think your crypto isn’t dead…. (Edit: you know how many down votes I got sharing a thesis on RKLB when trading below 4.50? Same when i bought OXY below 44$ and sold for over 35%, same with target under 90, sold above 115. HIVE AT 2.50 sold above 4.50. Getting downvoted is actually a qualitative indicator at this point) It’s this simple. Decide if you believe in the future of any investment. Hopefully you do this before you enter. Seems like not everyone does this. So do it now. Decide if you see a future. Make up your mind. What other’s say can’t change it. They can share ideas that you need to assess and research, but don’t just listen to the noise. You will get lost in other people’s confusion and doubt. I believe a few specific cryptocurrencies will be much higher someday. I do not know or care when. I also imagined price going down by 75%. I decided I would buy. I decided to buy back in below ——. After selling with over 3x profit, I bought back in at ——, add, and dca no matter what price does. Tank it. I want more cheaper. I can sit on paper losses until Ia few minutes before I die. I would sell then and give the cash to someone I love or give them the asset. When I bought in, I saw the money as gone. I also bought in with 100% profit. If you bought higher, lower prices should seem like a discount or a sale. I like lower prices so I buy more when I can. Buy into weakness if you believe in the future of any investment. If you are questioning the future, do more and extensive research. Look into the sources of your doubts. If you still lack unshakable conviction, set a stop loss and stick to it or just sell and preserve capital. It’s better to do all of this before you enter any investment, not after or when price is going down. submitted by /u/IdratherBhiking1 [link] [Kommentare]